Independent Fact-Checking

The facts,
plainly stated.

Primary-source research across science, history, politics, and media. Every claim backed by data. Every counterargument taken seriously. No agenda — just the evidence.

Primary sources only Confidence intervals shown Every counterargument tested Limitations disclosed No advertising
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Are Trans People Overrepresented as Mass Shooters? Politicians and political organizations have used this claim to justify legislation targeting the trans community. Three databases, every definition, full sensitivity analysis — and the strongest opposing arguments tested against their own data.
Primary sources
  • Gun Violence Archive (GVA) — N=5,900+, 2013–2026
  • Violence Prevention Project — strict definition, through 2024
  • Mother Jones mass shootings database — 1982–2025
  • Williams Institute — Trans population estimates (August 2025)
  • FBI Active Shooter Incidents Report 2024
  • CPRC / John Lott — opposing claim, tested and examined
  • FactCheck.org, PolitiFact, Snopes — independent verification
  • ADL, GLAAD, Human Rights Campaign
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Voter Fraud — The Documented Record 1,620 proven cases against 2.5 billion ballots. Every fraud type measured per capita. Every 2020 lawsuit outcome. The Fulton County FBI raid. And the only confirmed election law violation by a major political operation in Georgia's 2024 cycle — and who committed it.
Primary sources
  • Heritage Foundation Election Fraud Database — 1,620 cases, Dec 2025
  • Brennan Center for Justice — voter fraud research, 2017–2024
  • DOJ Public Integrity Section — prosecution data & 2023 report
  • CISA — "Most secure election in American history" (Nov 12, 2020)
  • Georgia State Election Board — America PAC reprimand (Feb 18, 2026)
  • MIT Election Lab, Brookings Institution, Cato Institute, GAO
  • 60+ 2020 election lawsuit court records across 12 states
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Border Crossings — What The Charts Actually Show 25 years of CBP encounter data. Title 42 recidivism inflation quantified. Methodology changes that break every comparison. Every major political claim tested.
CBP Encounter Data Pew Research CBO 2024 MPI TRAC Syracuse Cato Institute
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Policing, Race & Crime: What the Data Shows FBI crime data, use-of-force studies, racial disparity in stops and shootings. The reform and law-and-order positions tested against primary evidence.
FBI UCR BJS Knox et al. Fryer 2016 Roland Fryer
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Political, Ideological & Hate-Motivated Violence in the United States A comprehensive analysis of far-right, far-left, Islamist, and religious violence alongside hate crimes by bias category. Every ideology examined using the same evidentiary standard. Confidence-rated throughout.
FBI UCR New America CSIS ADL ACLED Kurzman (UNC)
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Immigration and Crime: What the Data Actually Shows Incarceration rates, Texas arrest data, 150 years of Census records, the European evidence — every major claim tested against primary sources.
Cato ACS 2023 Light et al. (PNAS) Abramitzky (NBER) Texas DPS Pew / PRRI
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Sexual Orientation, Gender Identity, and Crime Per-capita crime data for every group — heterosexual men, heterosexual women, gay men, lesbian women, trans women, trans men. The UK prison infographic debunked. The gay predator myth debunked. LGBTQ+ victimization data.
BJS / FBI UCR UK HMPPS Canada CSC R-442 Dhejne (PLoS One) Jenny (Pediatrics) Williams Institute
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The Death Penalty: Deterrence, Cost & Racial Disparities Does capital punishment deter murder? Is it cheaper than life imprisonment? Are there racial disparities? NRC, GAO, state audits, BJS, peer-reviewed studies.
NRC (2012) U.S. GAO BJS Donohue & Wolfers Baldus (McCleskey) DPIC
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Mass Shootings by Demographic Per-capita rates by race and gender across three major databases. Socioeconomic confounders examined. Confidence intervals calculated for every group. Raw counts vs. rates distinguished throughout.
Gun Violence Archive Mother Jones Violence Project Census Bureau
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The National Debt — What Both Parties Actually Did Deficit spending by administration, by Congress, and by policy area. CBO and Treasury data without the selective framing either party uses.
OMB Historical Tables CBO Outlook 2025 Treasury FiscalData FRED
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Job Creation Claims — Presidents vs. The Data Every administration’s jobs record against BLS data — with context for policy lags, inherited recessions, and the Blinder-Watson “luck” finding.
BLS CES (PAYEMS) NBER Blinder & Watson 2016 CBO/JCT
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The Gender Wage Gap: What the Data Actually Shows The raw 77-cent figure vs. the adjusted gap. What each statistic actually measures, what causes the residual gap, and what neither side in the debate gets right.
BLS ATUS OECD 2023 Goldin 2014 Audit studies
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U.S. Inflation (2021–2026): Causes, Drivers, and International Context CPI timeline from 0.3% to 9.1% and back. Supply chain, stimulus, and energy decomposed. International comparison. Federal Reserve response.
BLS CPI-U Fed FRED CBO OECD
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U.S. Federal Spending: Where the Money Goes FY2026 budget breakdown. Social Security, Medicare, defense, and net interest explained. The debt trajectory and what CBO projects.
CBO Jan 2026 OMB Treasury Tax Foundation
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Is College Still Worth the Cost? Wage premiums, tuition trajectory, debt loads, graduation rates, ROI by major and institution, and the AI disruption question. with BLS, Census, and Scorecard data.
BLS 2024 College Board 2025 NY Fed Georgetown CEW FREOPP ROI
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Do Tariffs Help U.S. Manufacturing? Steel, tires, China, and the 2025 escalation — every episode measured by jobs saved, jobs lost downstream, cost per job, consumer prices, and trade deficit impact.
USITC Fed (Flaaen/Pierce) CBO PIIE Yale Budget Lab
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Does Raising the Minimum Wage Kill Jobs? Employment effects, poverty, prices, small businesses, automation — the strongest evidence from named studies. Card & Krueger, CBO, Dube, Neumark.
Card & Krueger CBO (2023) Dube et al. Neumark & Wascher Seattle UW
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Gender-Affirming Care for Minors — What the Evidence Shows Puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries — every major study, the Cass Review, counter-critiques, international policy splits, and what the data actually shows.
WPATH SOC8 Cass Review AAP Endocrine Society Tordoff 2022 Yale Law Trevor Project
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Vaccine Safety & Efficacy: What the Data Actually Shows Over 23 million children studied across 138 studies. No link to autism. Real but rare adverse events. COVID vaccine trials, myocarditis rates, VAERS vs V-safe, childhood schedule debate.
Primary sources
  • Cochrane Systematic Review (2021) — 138 studies, 23M+ children
  • Hviid et al. (2019, Ann Intern Med) — 657,461 Danish children
  • Jain et al. (2015, JAMA) — 95,727 U.S. children
  • CDC VSD, VAERS, V-safe surveillance systems
  • Pfizer & Moderna Phase 3 trials (73,968 participants)
  • Brighton Collaboration standardized case definitions
  • IOM/National Academies 2013 Schedule Review
  • WHO GACVS vaccine safety assessments
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Ultra-Processed Food: What the Research Actually Shows The NIH feeding trial. 45 cohort studies. NOVA classification explained. Mechanisms proposed and contested. The strongest arguments on each side tested.
Hall et al. 2019 NOVA NutriNet BMJ meta-analyses
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Social Media & Youth Mental Health Is social media destroying a generation? CDC YRBS, NHS Digital, ABCD, meta-analyses, natural experiments. Effect sizes disclosed. Haidt vs. Odgers.
CDC YRBS ABCD (Nagata 2025) Braghieri (AER 2022) Orben & Przybylski Surgeon General
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How this site works →

Primary sources only

FBI, CDC, Census Bureau, peer-reviewed journals. No aggregators, no op-eds — only the underlying data, cited directly on every page.

Testing every counterargument

Every opposing argument is presented with its strongest supporting evidence before being addressed. No strawmanning, no selective quotation.

Sensitivity analysis

Every assumption is tested. Results shown under multiple definitions, time windows, and denominators — so you can see how robust each conclusion actually is.

Honest about limits

Wide confidence intervals are shown, not hidden. Data gaps are named. What the evidence can't establish matters as much as what it can.

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