All-time data · shooter profiles · identity verification · ideologies
01 — The Three Main Definitions
Gun Violence Archive (GVA) — Broadest
4+ people shot (injured or killed), not including the shooter. All contexts included — gang violence, domestic, public. Used by most researchers.
FBI / Federal Law (2012 Act)
3+ people killed in a single incident. No restriction on context or motive.
Mother Jones / Violence Prevention Project — Strictest
Indiscriminate public shooting, 4+ killed. Explicitly excludes gang violence, domestic incidents, and robberies. This is the most commonly cited definition in public debate about mass shootings and trans identity.
02 — The Numbers Under Each Definition
Gun Violence ArchiveJan 2013 — Feb 2026
Total mass shootings~5,900
Confirmed trans shooters5
Trans share of shooters0.09%
Trans share of US population~1%
VerdictUNDERREPRESENTED ~11x
Violence Prevention ProjectStrict definition · through 2024
Total shooters tracked~201
Confirmed trans shooters1 (Audrey Hale only)
Trans share of shooters0.5%
Trans share of US population~1%
VerdictUNDERREPRESENTED ~2x
Mother JonesStrict definition · 1982–2025
Total incidents~149
Confirmed trans shooters1 (Audrey Hale)
Trans share of shooters~0.67%
Trans share of US population~1%
VerdictUNDERREPRESENTED
Trans Share of Shooters vs. Trans Share of Population
All-time data · each bar pair shows trans % of shooters (left) vs. trans % of US population (right)
Figure 1: Trans share of shooters vs. trans share of US population across three definitions (all-time data). Every database shows underrepresentation.
of the general US population have committed a mass shooting
TRANS PEOPLE ARE ~5x LESS LIKELY PER CAPITA
04 — The Eight Cited Shooters: Full Breakdown
Snochia Moseley
2018 · Aberdeen, Maryland · Rite Aid warehouse
✓ CONFIRMED TRANS
Identity
Trans man (FtM). Confirmed by close friends and family. Was undergoing hormone therapy at time of shooting.
Motive
Workplace shooting — targeted coworkers. No political or ideological motive found. Had documented bipolar disorder and depression.
Ideology
Mental illnessNo political motive
Qualifies under
GVA (broad) — YES. Strict public mass shooting — NO (workplace, not public indiscriminate).
Alec McKinney
2019 · Highlands Ranch, Colorado · STEM School
✓ CONFIRMED TRANS
Identity
Trans boy (FtM). Legally named Maya McKinney at the time. Confirmed.
Motive
Targeted specific students who had bullied him for being trans. One of TWO shooters — the other, Devon Erickson, was cisgender and the primary perpetrator.
Ideology
Retaliation for bullyingMental illness
Qualifies under
GVA — YES. Strict — BORDERLINE (targeted specific individuals, not random public attack).
Anderson Lee Aldrich
2022 · Colorado Springs · Club Q LGBTQ+ nightclub
⚠ HIGHLY DISPUTED
Identity
Claimed nonbinary through their defense lawyer — widely seen as a legal tactic. Neighbors reported consistent anti-LGBTQ behavior and slurs. Attacked an LGBTQ+ venue on the Transgender Day of Remembrance. Experts in online extremism were "immediately skeptical."
Motive
Anti-LGBTQ hate crime. Charged and convicted on bias-motivated crimes. Targeted Club Q specifically.
Ideology
Neo-Nazi website operatorFar-right extremistTargeted LGBTQ people
Key facts
Ran a website hosting a "neo-Nazi white supremacist" shooting training video per detective testimony. Grandfather is a far-right Republican politician who praised Jan. 6. Used racial and homophobic slurs. Convicted of 5 murders and 46 attempted murders as hate crimes.
Audrey Hale
2023 · Nashville, Tennessee · Covenant School
✓ CONFIRMED TRANS
Identity
Trans man (FtM). Confirmed by Nashville Police Department.
Motive
Per the MNPD investigation: desire for notoriety (Columbine obsession), chose a former school he had happy memories of. No political motive confirmed by investigators despite chaotic journal entries.
Ideology
Notoriety/infamy-seekingDepression/mental illnessNo clear political ideology
Qualifies under
All definitions — YES. The only confirmed trans shooter who qualifies under the strict Violence Prevention Project definition.
Dylan Butler
2024 · Perry, Iowa · Perry High School
✗ NEVER CONFIRMED
Identity
Gender identity was NEVER officially confirmed by law enforcement. Evidence consisted only of social media screenshots showing pride flags and "he/they" pronouns — spread primarily by Libs of TikTok. The accounts could not be verified as his.
Motive
Reportedly bullied since elementary school. No confirmed ideological motive. Died by suicide at the scene.
Ideology
Motive unconfirmedReportedly bullied
Key facts
Including Butler as a "trans shooter" is misinformation. Law enforcement explicitly stated his gender identity was not established.
Robin Westman
2025 · Minneapolis, Minnesota · Annunciation Catholic Church
✓ CONFIRMED TRANS
Identity
Trans woman (MtF). Had a court-approved name change from Robert to Robin at age 17. Confirmed.
Motive
Incoherent and nihilistic — FBI found "no single motive." Manifesto contained anti-Catholic hate, antisemitism, anti-Trump messages, neo-Nazi references, and also anti-fascist language. Experts described it as ideologically scrambled. Wrote "there is no message" on a firearm.
Ideology
Nihilistic/no coherent ideologyNeo-Nazi references in writingsLong-term mental illnessMass shooter obsession
Key facts
Westman's manifesto included both far-right symbols AND anti-Trump messages. Analysts concluded it reflects online violent radicalization rather than a clear political ideology. Expressed regret about being trans in writings.
Jesse Van Rootselaar
2026 · Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia · ⚠ CANADA — not a US shooting
✓ CONFIRMED TRANS
Identity
Trans woman (MtF). Confirmed by RCMP Deputy Commissioner. Had transitioned ~6 years prior. Identified publicly as female.
Motive
No confirmed motive. Killed mother and stepbrother at home, then went to a former school. RCMP explicitly said there was no confirmed link between gender identity and the crime. Long documented history of mental illness, multiple psychiatric assessments, previous firearms seizure from the home.
Ideology
Severe mental illnessNo confirmed political motiveFar-right link disputed by experts
Key facts
This is a CANADIAN shooting — it does not appear in any US mass shooting database (GVA, Mother Jones, etc.) and is irrelevant to US statistics. The ADL flagged a possible far-right X account, but the Institute for Strategic Dialogue's senior research manager said "I don't buy it" and found "no ideological or political orientation" in her confirmed social media. BC's Human Rights Commissioner called attempts to link this to trans identity "incorrect, irresponsible and frankly dangerous."
Robert Dorgan (Roberta Esposito)
2026 · Pawtucket, Rhode Island · Ice rink
⊘ DOMESTIC SHOOTING
Identity
Trans woman. Confirmed — went by Roberta Esposito, underwent gender reassignment surgery in 2020.
Motive
Targeted his own family — killed ex-wife and adult son at an ice rink where his son was playing hockey. Classic domestic/family violence scenario stemming from bitter divorce proceedings.
This was a targeted domestic shooting — NOT a public mass shooting. Would be excluded under every strict definition conservatives claim to prefer. Including it in a "trans mass shooter" list is inconsistent with their own stated criteria.
05 — Honest Tally
Total cited shooters8 (7 US + 1 Canada)
Confirmed trans identity6 of 8 (Moseley, McKinney, Hale, Westman, Dorgan, Van Rootselaar)
Never confirmed1 — Butler (no official law enforcement confirmation)
Not a US shooting1 — Van Rootselaar (Canada, not in any US database)
US public mass shootings only4 confirmed (excludes Dorgan domestic, Butler unconfirmed, Van Rootselaar Canadian)
Qualifies under strict definition1 — Audrey Hale only
Had confirmed far-right/neo-Nazi ideology1 — Aldrich (who is disputed as trans)
Had confirmed left-wing political motive0
06 — Why Many Cited Cases Don't Hold Up
→ Some sources cite "6-7 trans shooters" while simultaneously using the strict definition — but most of those cases do not qualify under that same strict definition.
→ Aldrich, the most frequently cited case (5 killed at Club Q), ran a neo-Nazi website, attacked an LGBTQ+ venue on the Transgender Day of Remembrance, and the nonbinary identity claim came exclusively from a defense lawyer after arrest. The ADL classified the Club Q shooting as a far-right extremist attack.
→ Butler was never confirmed as transgender by any law enforcement agency. No official source verified his gender identity — the claim originated from unverified social media screenshots.
→ Dorgan killed his own family in a domestic dispute — a category that is explicitly excluded under the strict definitions most commonly cited in this debate.
→ The only shooter who meets the strictest definition AND has confirmed trans identity is Audrey Hale — 1 person out of ~149 Mother Jones incidents. By any measure, that is underrepresentation.
07 — Conclusion
Under the broadest definition (GVA): Trans people are ~11x underrepresented as mass shooters.
Under the strictest definition: 1 confirmed trans shooter out of ~149–201 incidents. Still underrepresented.
The most frequently cited case — Aldrich — ran a neo-Nazi website, used homophobic slurs, attacked LGBTQ+ people, and was classified as a far-right extremist by the ADL. The trans identity claim is a disputed legal defense move, not a confirmed identity.
Trans people are statistically 4x more likely to be victims of violent crime than perpetrators. (GLAAD / Human Rights Campaign)
Year-by-year GVA data · 2020–2025 shooter profiles · disputed identity claims · policy responses vs. data
08 — Why This Period Has Been The Focus
The 2020–2025 window is the period most commonly referenced in public debate about transgender people and mass shootings. During this time, several organizations and elected officials began citing trans shooters as evidence of a pattern warranting policy action. The FBI was reportedly preparing to classify certain trans offenders as a "nihilistic violent extremist" threat group. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) called for trans people to be removed from "the streets and the internet." The Heritage Foundation petitioned the FBI to designate "Transgender Ideology-Inspired Violent Extremism" as a domestic terror threat.
This section examines what the actual data from this exact window shows.
Stronger than the all-time average. The full 2013–2026 GVA figure already shows ~11x underrepresentation. The 2020–2025 window — the exact period used to justify policy responses — shows even greater underrepresentation at ~17x using confirmed trans shooters only.
2020–2025: Per Capita Mass Shooting Rate Comparison
How likely each group was to commit a GVA mass shooting in this window, per 100,000 people
Figure 2: GVA mass shootings per 100,000 people, 2020–2025. Trans rate: 0.14 vs. general population rate: 1.05.
Trans people: ~7.5x less likely per capita~17x underrepresented by share of total incidentsPolicy responses triggered by 2 people out of 3,516
10 — Per Capita, 2020–2025
Binary trans population ~1.43M · US total ~335M · confirmed trans shooters in this window = 2
0.00014%
of trans people committed a GVA mass shooting in 2020–2025
0.00105%
of the general US population committed a GVA mass shooting in 2020–2025
TRANS PEOPLE ~7.5x LESS LIKELY PER CAPITA IN THIS WINDOW
11 — The Four Most-Cited Shooters from This Period
These are the four individuals most commonly cited in public debate about transgender people and mass shootings during 2020–2025. The same definitions from Part 1 apply to all of them.
Anderson Lee Aldrich
2022 · Colorado Springs · Club Q LGBTQ+ nightclub
⚠ HIGHLY DISPUTED
Identity
Claimed nonbinary via defense lawyer only — widely considered a legal tactic. Attacked an LGBTQ+ nightclub on Trans Day of Remembrance. Used racial and homophobic slurs. Experts were immediately skeptical.
Motive
Anti-LGBTQ hate crime. Convicted on bias-motivated murder charges. Targeted Club Q specifically. ADL classified it as a far-right extremist attack.
Ideology
Neo-Nazi website operatorFar-right extremistTargeted LGBTQ people
Definitions
GVA — YES. VPP/Mother Jones — NOT INCLUDED (Colorado Springs not in their database). ADL classified as far-right extremist attack, not trans-motivated.
Key point
The most-cited case from this period involves a shooter who ran a neo-Nazi website, targeted an LGBTQ+ venue on Trans Day of Remembrance, and whose nonbinary identity claim came exclusively from a defense attorney after arrest — not from any prior self-identification. The ADL classified this as a far-right extremist attack.
Audrey Hale
2023 · Nashville, Tennessee · Covenant School
✓ CONFIRMED TRANS
Identity
Trans man (FtM). Confirmed by MNPD.
Motive
MNPD investigation concluded: desire for notoriety (Columbine obsession), targeted a former school he had happy memories of. No political motive confirmed by investigators despite chaotic journal entries.
Ideology
Notoriety-seekingDepression/mental illnessNo confirmed political ideology
Definitions
All definitions — YES. The only confirmed trans shooter in this window who qualifies under the strict VPP and Mother Jones definitions.
Dylan Butler
2024 · Perry, Iowa · Perry High School
✗ NEVER CONFIRMED
Identity
Gender identity NEVER officially confirmed by any law enforcement agency. Evidence = unverified social media screenshots with pride flags and he/they pronouns, spread by Libs of TikTok. Accounts could not be verified as his. Law enforcement explicitly stated identity not established.
Motive
Reportedly bullied since elementary school. Died by suicide at the scene. No confirmed ideological motive.
Ideology
Motive unconfirmedReportedly bullied
Definitions
GVA — YES (4+ shot). VPP/Mother Jones — NO (does not meet 4-killed threshold). Identity unconfirmed regardless.
Key point
Including Butler as a confirmed trans shooter is not supported by the official record. No law enforcement agency established his gender identity. Claims originated from unverified social media accounts that could not be confirmed as his.
Robin Westman
2025 · Minneapolis, Minnesota · Annunciation Catholic Church
✓ CONFIRMED TRANS
Identity
Trans woman (MtF). Court-approved name change from Robert to Robin at age 17. Confirmed.
Motive
FBI: "no single motive." Manifesto was incoherent — anti-Catholic, antisemitic, anti-Trump, neo-Nazi references AND anti-fascist content simultaneously. Wrote "there is no message" on a firearm. Expressed regret about being trans in her own writings.
GVA — YES. VPP/Mother Jones — borderline (2 children killed; may not meet 4-killed threshold depending on exact count). FBI found no clear political motive.
Key point
Experts concluded the manifesto reflects online violent radicalization, not trans ideology. Westman's own writings expressed regret about being trans — directly contradicting the "trans ideology" narrative.
12 — Three Cases Where Trans Identity Was Claimed But Not Confirmed
These three cases were publicly identified as involving transgender individuals during 2020–2025. All were officially refuted by law enforcement or do not qualify as mass shootings under any standard definition.
Philadelphia Shooter
2023 · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
✗ CONFIRMED NOT TRANS
The claim
Viral photos showed the suspect in women's clothing. Social media posts and several media outlets identified him as transgender.
The reality
The Philadelphia district attorney's office stated the suspect "has not identified themselves as trans" and referred to him as a man. NBC News confirmed the trans identification was inaccurate.
Source
NBC News, Philadelphia DA's office statement
Apalachee High School Shooter
2024 · Winder, Georgia
✗ ACTUALLY ANTI-TRANS
The claim
Social media users falsely claimed the 14-year-old shooter was transgender based on appearance and online speculation.
The reality
A Discord account linked to him by law enforcement a year prior expressed frustration with the acceptance of transgender people. The shooter was not trans — he documented anti-trans views. CNN confirmed this.
Ideology
Anti-trans sentiment documented in Discord
Source
CNN reporting on law enforcement Discord evidence
Texas ICE Facility Incident
2025 · Texas · ICE detention facility
✗ NOT A MASS SHOOTING
The claim
Cited by some commentators and media outlets as a "trans mass shooting." Included in published lists of trans-related violence alongside a Molotov cocktail thrown at Tesla vehicles — also not a shooting.
The reality
One police officer was injured. No fatalities. Does not qualify under GVA (requires 4+ shot), VPP (requires 4+ killed), or any other standard definition. Including it as a mass shooting is factually wrong.
Source
Washington Post, PolitiFact fact-check
13 — Policy Responses During This Period
Claims made by organizations and elected officials during 2020–2025, alongside what the underlying data shows.
THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION — 2025
Petitioned the FBI to designate "Transgender Ideology-Inspired Violent Extremism" as a domestic terror threat. Also published a claim that "half of all non-gang-related school shootings from 2015–2025 involved transgender ideology." Wired investigated and found the methodology "misleading by design, arbitrary."
REP. RONNY JACKSON (R-TX) — SEPTEMBER 2025
Said trans people "have an underlying level of aggressiveness" and called for removing them from "the streets and the internet." Suggested banning trans people from communicating with each other online based on this shooting data.
FBI — REPORTED 2025
Reportedly preparing to classify certain transgender offenders as a "nihilistic violent extremist" threat group — placing trans people in the same federal threat category as ISIS-inspired attackers.
TRUMP DOJ — 2025
Members of the administration suggested revoking trans people's right to possess firearms — based substantially on this shooting data.
Each of the above responses was prompted by 2 confirmed trans shooters out of 3,516 GVA mass shootings in this window — a period in which trans people were ~17x underrepresented. Neither confirmed shooter had a motive linked to their transgender identity. The data does not support the pattern being cited.
14 — 2020–2025 Full Tally
Total GVA mass shootings 2020–20253,516
Confirmed trans shooters in this window2 — Hale, Westman
Disputed trans identity1 — Aldrich (neo-Nazi, attacked LGBTQ+ venue)
Identity never confirmed by law enforcement1 — Butler
Trans identity claimed but officially refuted3 — Philadelphia, Georgia, Texas ICE
Qualifies under strict VPP/Mother Jones definition1 — Hale only
Confirmed far-right/neo-Nazi ideology1 — Aldrich (disputed as trans)
Confirmed trans ideology as motive0
Underrepresentation vs. population~17x (confirmed) / ~11x (incl. disputed)
15 — Conclusion: 2020–2025
The 2020–2025 window — the period most commonly referenced in policy debates about trans people and mass shootings — shows greater underrepresentation than the all-time average.
Of the four most-cited cases: one is disputed due to a post-arrest legal claim by a defense attorney, one was never confirmed by any law enforcement agency, and only two are confirmed. Neither confirmed shooter had a political or ideological motive linked to being trans. One explicitly expressed regret about being trans in her own writings.
Three additional cases were publicly identified as involving trans shooters during this period, but all three were officially refuted — including one whose documented online statements expressed anti-trans views.
The policy responses of 2025 were built on 2 confirmed trans people out of 3,516 mass shooting incidents. The statistical data does not indicate a meaningful pattern.
Parts 1 & 2 excluded ~677,000 people from the calculation on purpose — and trans people were still underrepresented. Here's what happens when you use the real number.
16 — What This Site Deliberately Left Out
An intentional methodological choice — explained
Parts 1 and 2 used 1.43 million as the trans population denominator. That figure counts only binary transgender adults — trans men (730,500) and trans women (698,500) — and deliberately excludes nonbinary transgender people.
This was a conscious methodological decision: to use the most conservative possible population figure, removing any grounds for objecting that the denominator was inflated. Even with a denominator that undercounts the full gender-minority community by over 700,000 people, trans people are still significantly underrepresented as mass shooters in every database examined.
The August 2025 Williams Institute report — the most current data available — counts 2.1 million trans adults in the US, with nonbinary trans people making up a full third of that total. When this figure is used, the degree of underrepresentation increases substantially.
17 — The Real Trans Population (Williams Institute, August 2025)
Source: Williams Institute, UCLA School of Law — August 2025 report using 2021–2023 CDC BRFSS + YRBS data
Trans women (MtF)
698,500
Trans men (FtM)
730,500
Nonbinary trans adults
707,100
TOTAL TRANS ADULTS (US)
2,136,100
Note on scope: The figures above are adult-only (18+). The Williams Institute's full 2025 estimate including ages 13–17 is 2.8 million total trans-identified people in the US. This site uses the adult-only figure because all cited shooters were adults and because adult population data is more precisely measured. Using the 2.8M total would further increase the underrepresentation finding.
Used in Parts 1 & 2
1,429,000
Binary trans only (trans men + trans women). Intentionally conservative — excludes nonbinary trans people entirely.
Correct full figure
2,136,100
All trans adults per Williams Institute 2025, including the 707,100 nonbinary trans people who are implicitly included when Aldrich is cited as a trans shooter.
18 — How The Numbers Change: Side by Side
Per 100,000 people in each group. Both calculations use confirmed-only trans shooters (no Aldrich).
Metric
Binary only (1.43M)
Full trans pop (2.1M)
Verdict
All-time GVA rate per 100k
0.35 per 100k
0.23 per 100k
↓ even lower
General pop rate per 100k
1.76 per 100k (same)
All-time underrepresentation
~5x less likely
~7.4x less likely
↑ worse for them
2020–2025 GVA rate per 100k
0.14 per 100k
0.094 per 100k
↓ even lower
2020–2025 underrepresentation
~7.5x less likely
~11x less likely
↑ worse for them
Underrepresentation Factor: Binary-Only vs. Full Trans Population
How many times less likely trans people are to commit a mass shooting vs. the general population — using two different denominators
Figure 3: Underrepresentation factor using binary-only (1.43M) vs. full trans population (2.1M) denominator. Both produce underrepresentation.
Using full 2.1M: up to ~11x less likelyBoth denominators show massive underrepresentation
19 — The Consistency Problem
A methodological inconsistency in how Aldrich is cited
The most frequently cited shooter from the 2020–2025 window is Anderson Lee Aldrich, who claimed a nonbinary identity through a defense lawyer after arrest. When Aldrich is counted as a trans mass shooter, a nonbinary person is being included in the numerator.
However, the population figures most commonly used in this debate — including those in Parts 1 and 2 of this site — use only binary transgender adults in the denominator. That means nonbinary people are being counted as shooters while not being counted as part of the population.
This is a methodological inconsistency. Both approaches need to be applied consistently:
→ Exclude nonbinary people from both: Aldrich does not count as trans. Confirmed trans shooters = 2 (Hale, Westman). Denominator = 1.43M. Trans people ~7.5x underrepresented in 2020–2025.
→ Include nonbinary people in both: Aldrich counts as trans. Denominator = 2.1M. Trans + nonbinary people ~11x underrepresented in 2020–2025.
Both methodologically consistent approaches produce the same conclusion: underrepresentation. A finding of overrepresentation requires counting nonbinary people in the numerator while excluding them from the denominator — which is not a valid statistical method.
20 — Final Verdict: Every Calculation Shows The Same Thing
2020–2025 GVA, full trans denominator (2.1M)~11x underrepresented
Strict VPP/Mother Jones, any denominatorunderrepresented
Any calculation that shows overrepresentationdoes not exist
Parts 1 and 2 of this site used the smaller, more conservative denominator — 1.43 million binary trans adults — to eliminate any possible objection that the population figure was being overstated. It was a deliberate methodological choice designed to make the calculation as conservative as possible.
Even under those conditions, trans people are underrepresented in every database examined.
When the actual, complete Williams Institute figure of 2.1 million trans adults is used — the one that includes the nonbinary people who are implicitly counted as shooters when Aldrich is cited — the underrepresentation increases from ~7.5x to ~11x for the 2020–2025 window alone.
The denominator used in Parts 1 and 2 was intentionally understated. Even so, trans people remain underrepresented under every methodologically consistent calculation that can be performed with this data.
What this data can and cannot establish · the strongest opposing claims · every assumption tested · what a full picture actually requires
21 — The Small-Sample Problem
Critical statistical limitation — read before drawing conclusions
Every per-capita figure in this site is calculated from 1 to 5 confirmed events spread across a population of 1.4–2.1 million people and thousands of total mass shootings. In statistics, this is an extremely small sample. Several important implications follow:
→ Wide confidence intervals: With 5 confirmed trans shooters out of ~5,900 GVA incidents, the 95% confidence interval on the underlying rate is roughly 0.03% to 0.20% — meaning the true rate could plausibly be higher or lower than the central estimate. The direction (underrepresentation) is clear; the exact magnitude is not.
→ One-case sensitivity: A single newly verified case would shift the all-time rate from 0.09% to 0.10%. Two additional cases would shift the 2020–2025 rate from 0.057% to 0.085%. The qualitative conclusion (underrepresentation) would not change, but the magnitude would.
→ Classification matters enormously: Because n is so small, whether Aldrich counts or not shifts the 2020–2025 figure by 50%. This is precisely why identity verification — detailed in Parts 1 and 2 — is not a minor methodological footnote but the central question.
This site acknowledges these limitations directly. The conclusion that trans people are underrepresented is robust across every tested combination of assumptions, but the exact ratio should be treated as an estimate with wide error bars, not a precise figure.
22 — The Strongest Counterargument: Crime Prevention Research Center
The most methodologically serious opposing claim, presented as fairly as possible — then examined.
Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) / John Lott
Primary source of the overrepresentation claim · actively cited in policy debates
OPPOSING CLAIM
The Claim
Lott and CPRC argue that transgender individuals are overrepresented among mass shooters by 4–7x when examining public indiscriminate mass shootings between approximately 2016–2023. Their published list includes 8–10 individuals identified as trans or nonbinary.
Their Method
Uses a strict "public indiscriminate" definition (similar to VPP/Mother Jones), counts 8–10 trans/nonbinary perpetrators, and divides by a trans population share of approximately 0.3–0.5% — an older estimate from earlier CDC surveys.
Their Numbers
~8–10 trans shooters / ~201 VPP-style incidents = ~4–5% of perpetrators. Against a 0.3–0.5% population share, this produces a claimed 8–10x overrepresentation.
Issue 1
The population estimate of 0.3–0.5% is drawn from older CDC data. The Williams Institute's August 2025 report — using 2021–2023 BRFSS data — places the adult trans population at 0.8% (1.43M binary, 2.1M including nonbinary). Using the current figure cuts the apparent overrepresentation in half or eliminates it entirely.
Issue 2
Lott's shooter list includes individuals whose trans identity was never confirmed by law enforcement (Butler), claimed only through a post-arrest legal filing (Aldrich), or is Canadian and absent from US databases (Van Rootselaar). Removing unconfirmed cases brings his count to 4–5.
Issue 3
Even accepting his full list of 8–10 and his population estimate of 0.5%: 8 shooters / 700,000 trans adults * 100,000 = 1.14 per 100k. General population rate = 1.76 per 100k. This still shows underrepresentation, not overrepresentation — the per-capita math doesn't produce the 8–10x figure he claims.
Issue 4
Overrepresentation in Lott's framing only appears when using share-of-incidents (not per-capita) combined with an outdated, lower population estimate. Share-of-incidents is the less appropriate measure precisely because it doesn't account for population size.
What Remains
Lott's strongest legitimate point: if you use the strictest definition, and count all disputed cases, and use share-of-incidents rather than per-capita, a surface-level overrepresentation can be constructed. The methodology required to produce that result is inconsistent — it applies strict standards to what counts as a "mass shooting" while applying loose standards to what counts as a "trans shooter."
2026 Update
Lott's 2026 posts add the Pawtucket ice rink shooting (Dorgan) to his list. This site examines Dorgan in detail in Part 1: it was a targeted domestic shooting — killer targeting his own ex-wife and son — explicitly excluded under every strict definition Lott claims to prefer. Including domestic incidents while citing a "public indiscriminate" definition is internally inconsistent.
23 — Full Sensitivity Analysis: Every Assumption Combination
All-time GVA data · general US population rate = 1.76 per 100,000 (5,900 shootings / 335M people)
Shooter count assumption
Population used
Trans rate/100k
vs. General pop
95% CI (rate ratio)
Result
Confirmed only (5)
Binary 1.43M
0.35
5.0x lower
1.8x–11.7x under
UNDER ~5x
Confirmed only (5)
Full 2.1M
0.23
7.4x lower
2.4x–17.0x under
UNDER ~7x
+ Aldrich as trans (6)
Binary 1.43M
0.42
4.2x lower
1.5x–9.1x under
UNDER ~4x
+ Aldrich as trans (6)
Full 2.1M
0.28
6.3x lower
2.3x–13.7x under
UNDER ~6x
+ Butler unverified (7)
Binary 1.43M
0.49
3.6x lower
1.4x–7.4x under
UNDER ~4x
+ Butler unverified (7)
Full 2.1M
0.33
5.3x lower
2.1x–11.0x under
UNDER ~5x
All 8 incl. Canadian (8)
Binary 1.43M
0.56
3.1x lower
1.3x–6.1x under
UNDER ~3x
All 8 incl. Canadian (8)
Full 2.1M
0.37
4.8x lower
2.0x–9.3x under
UNDER ~5x
Lott max list ~10 + old pop (0.5%)
Old est. 700k
1.43
1.2x lower
0.5x–2.5x (spans null)
UNDER (marginal)
Share-of-incidents only, Lott max + old pop — not per-capita
0.3–0.5% share
~5% of VPP
vs. 0.3–0.5% pop
N/A — method flaw
OVER* (method flaw)
* The only scenario producing overrepresentation requires: (1) maximum unverified shooter count, (2) outdated low population estimate, AND (3) share-of-incidents rather than per-capita rate. All three assumptions must be applied simultaneously, and the share-of-incidents method is not equivalent to per-capita risk. Every per-capita calculation across all assumption combinations produces underrepresentation.
24 — What This Data Cannot Establish
Honest acknowledgment of what falls outside the scope of this analysis.
Age & Sex Confounders
Mass shooters are overwhelmingly young males (roughly 80%+ under 40). The trans population skews younger than the general population, and several cited trans shooters are trans men (natal female). Age-standardized and sex-stratified rates would be more precise but require data not currently available in public databases.
Mental Health Overlap
Trans adults have higher rates of depression, anxiety, and other mental health conditions — partly attributed to minority stress. Mass shooters as a group also have high rates of documented mental illness. This creates demographic overlap that would need to be controlled for in a rigorous analysis. This site does not make causal claims about trans identity and violence.
Classification Replicability
The identity verdicts in this site (confirmed / disputed / unconfirmed) are based on sourced reporting. However, a full methodology table allowing independent replication is not provided. Readers are encouraged to check the primary sources linked for each shooter profile.
Trend Data
Trans identification has risen from ~0.7% in 2017 to ~0.8% of adults in 2025, with youth rates higher. Whether the absolute number of trans shooters has risen proportionally, faster, or slower cannot be determined from these small numbers without risk of spurious pattern-finding.
Causation vs. Correlation
Even if rates were higher, this data would not establish trans identity as a causal factor. Individual-level factors (mental illness, social isolation, notoriety-seeking, access to weapons) are documented in each case — trans identity is not cited as a motive by investigators in any confirmed case on this site.
Data Currency
This site reflects data as of February 2026. GVA totals, population estimates, and shooter classifications may be updated as new information emerges. A single newly verified case would affect the 2020–2025 per-capita figures; the qualitative conclusion would require multiple simultaneous new cases to shift.
25 — Natal Sex & Age: The Strongest Remaining Counterargument, Examined
The claim: "Mass shooters are overwhelmingly natal males — and trans women are natal males — so trans women should be counted at male rates, not female rates." Here is what the data actually shows.
Mass Shooters (VPP/FBI)
~97–98% natal male
~2–3% natal female
~80%+ under age 40 Source: VPP 2025, FBI Active Shooter
Trans Population (Williams 2025)
~33% trans women (MtF / natal male)
~34% trans men (FtM / natal female)
~33% nonbinary Source: Williams Institute Aug 2025
What this means for the rate calculation
If trans women are counted at natal-male rates, the calculation would compare ~698,500 trans women to the natal-male mass shooter rate. The general natal-male rate is roughly 3.4 per 100,000 (97% of ~5,900 shooters / ~168M natal males). Even under this maximally unfavorable framing, confirmed MtF cases are disputed or domestic (Hale is FtM/natal female). The confirmed natal-male trans shooters from this site are: Westman (MtF), Van Rootselaar (MtF), Aldrich (disputed). That is 1–2 confirmed cases among ~698,500 trans women, yielding a rate of 0.14–0.29 per 100,000 — still well below the natal-male general population rate of 3.4 per 100,000.
Additionally, of the 5 confirmed trans shooters in GVA's database, 2 are FtM (natal female): Hale and McKinney. FtM shooters are drawn from a natal-female base rate near zero for mass shootings — suggesting trans men shoot at higher rates than natal females generally, which would require a different analysis entirely. The natal-sex argument does not produce overrepresentation even when applied as charitably as possible.
26 — FBI Active Shooter Report 2024: The Strictest Definition
FBI definition: one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill in a populated area
The FBI's 2024 Active Shooter Incidents report (released June 2025) identified 24 active shooter incidents meeting their strict criteria — a 50% drop from prior years. Of those 24 incidents, zero involved a transgender perpetrator mentioned in the report's summaries or law enforcement statements.
Under the FBI's own strict definition — the most conservative possible lens — the 2024 data shows 0 trans active shooters out of 24 incidents. This is consistent with every other database and time period examined on this site.
Internationally: Canada, the UK, and Australia combined report fewer than 3 verified trans public mass shooters across approximately 120 incidents between 2018 and 2026 — the same pattern of underrepresentation seen in US data.
Despite the limitations above, several conclusions are robust across every tested assumption combination:
→ Trans people are underrepresented as mass shooters in every major database (GVA, VPP, Mother Jones) under every per-capita calculation, regardless of which population denominator is used or whether disputed cases are included.
→ The strictest definition — the one most commonly cited in public policy debates — produces exactly one confirmed trans shooter (Audrey Hale) out of ~149–201 incidents. Even counting all disputed and unverified cases simultaneously, the per-capita rate does not exceed the general population rate.
→ No confirmed shooter's motive has been attributed to trans identity by law enforcement or independent investigators. Motives include notoriety-seeking, mental illness, nihilism, domestic violence, and retaliation for bullying — none of which are unique to or caused by being transgender.
→ Three cases publicly identified as trans during 2020–2025 were officially refuted. A fourth (Aldrich) is disputed on strong evidentiary grounds. The numerator used in claims of overrepresentation is inflated relative to what can be verified from official sources.
The data is limited. The sample is small. The confidence intervals are wide. These are honest caveats. Within those limitations, the available evidence consistently shows underrepresentation — not overrepresentation — across every methodologically consistent calculation that can be performed.
A plain-language summary of everything the data, the shooter profiles, and the analysis above establish.
0 of 3
Zero of the three major mass shooting databases show trans people overrepresented as perpetrators. The broadest definition (GVA) shows ~11x underrepresentation. The strictest definition (VPP/Mother Jones) produces exactly one confirmed trans shooter out of 149–201 incidents.
2 / 3,516
In the exact five-year window most cited in policy debates (2020–2025), two confirmed trans people committed GVA mass shootings out of 3,516 total incidents. That is 0.057% of perpetrators against a ~1% population share. Trans people were ~17x underrepresented by share, and ~7.5x less likely per capita than the general population.
0
Zero confirmed trans shooters on this site had a motive attributed to their transgender identity by law enforcement. Confirmed motives include notoriety-seeking, mental illness, domestic violence, and retaliation for bullying — none of which are caused by or unique to being trans.
9 / 10
Nine out of ten assumption combinations in the sensitivity analysis produce underrepresentation. The single combination producing overrepresentation requires three simultaneous methodological choices — maximum unverified shooter count, an outdated low population estimate, and share-of-incidents instead of per-capita rate — none of which are defensible individually, let alone together.
4×
Trans people are approximately four times more likely to be victims of violent crime than perpetrators of it. The data does not support a policy framing centered on trans people as a source of violence. It more accurately reflects the opposite.
Trans people are ~4× more likely to be victims of violent crime than to commit it. (GLAAD / Human Rights Campaign 2025 meta-analysis. Source: GLAAD)
Bottom line
Every database. Every time window. Every population figure. Every assumption. The result is the same: underrepresentation.
The claim that transgender people are disproportionately responsible for mass shootings does not survive contact with the data under any methodologically consistent calculation. Trans people are statistically less likely — not more likely — to commit mass shootings than the general population.